Big World, Small Planet: Abundance within Planetary Boundaries
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“If you have time to read one book on this subject, I highly recommend the new Big World, Small Planet, by Johan Rockström , director of the Stockholm Resilience Center, and Mattias Klum, whose stunning photographs of ecosystem disruptions reinforce the urgency of the moment.”—Thomas L. Friedman, New York Times
Big World, Small Planet probes the urgent predicament of our times: How is it possible to create a positive future for both humanity and Earth? We have entered the Anthropocene—the era of massive human impacts on the planet—and the actions of more than seven billion residents threaten to destabilize Earth’s natural systems, with cascading consequences for human societies. In this extraordinary book, the authors combine the latest science with compelling storytelling and amazing photography to create a new narrative for humanity’s future.
Johan Rockström and Mattias Klum reject the notion that economic growth and human prosperity can only be achieved at the expense of the environment. They contend that we have unprecedented opportunities to navigate a “good Anthropocene.” By embracing a deep mind-shift, humanity can reconnect to Earth, discover universal values, and take on the essential role of planetary steward. With eloquence and profound optimism, Rockström and Klum envision a future of abundance within planetary boundaries—a revolutionary future that is at once necessary, possible, and sustainable for coming generations.
ISBN-13: 9780300218367
Media Type: Hardcover
Publisher: Yale University Press
Publication Date: 09-22-2015
Pages: 208
Product Dimensions: 6.00(w) x 8.40(h) x 1.20(d)
Johan Rockström is founding director of the Stockholm Resilience Centre and professor of water systems and global sustainability at Stockholm University. He is the author of several books and more than 100 research publications. He lives in Stockholm, Sweden. Mattias Klum is a National Geographic photographer and filmmaker who has focused on endangered species, ecosystems, and ethnic minorities around the world. Big World, Small Planet is Klum’s thirteenth book.
OUR NEW PREDICAMENT THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT is a relatively new phenomenon. For most of Earth's 4.5 billion-year history, conditions on the planet have been far less hospitable than they are today. It has only been during the past 10,000 years, in fact, that factors necessary for human societies to develop have been reliably present. Before that, Earth was often a horror show. When our ancestors, the earliest hominids, first appeared in Africa some 2.5 million years ago, for example, they faced a series of crises as Earth shifted back and forth between punishing ice ages and lush warm periods. Even when modern human beings began to walk the planet about 160,000 years ago, survival was still not a sure thing. The world's climate kept alternating between cold episodes of expanding ice sheets, water scarcity, low sea levels, and food shortages, and warm episodes of abundant water, high seas, and lush biomass resources. Although these swings weren't extraordinary from a geological perspective — global temperatures varied less than 5°C (9°F) one way or the other — their consequences were huge for human survival. Back then, the relatively small human population, fluctuating between a few million and tens of millions, lived as hunters and gatherers. During periods of extreme climate shifts, when it was hard to find food and shelter, they were confined to pockets of productive savannahs in Africa. In a critical cold period about 75,000 years ago, as DNA analyses have revealed, the entire human population may have dwindled to as few as 15,000 fertile adults, confined to the high plateau in northern Ethiopia. This constituted a profound crisis for our species. We've never been as close — in fact, one cannot be closer — to extinction. To find new sources of food, groups of survivors set out along the coasts of the Red Sea, which at the time may have been as much as 100 m (328 ft) lower than it is today (because so much freshwater was tied up in the polar ice sheets). Walking first through the southern Arabian Peninsula — then, as now, an arid and inhospitable environment — and then moving along the coast toward India, these groups, among others, eventually spread to Australasia and Europe some 40,000 years later. It was the scale and rapidity of climatic changes that locked humanity into a semi-nomadic lifestyle. Sometimes these changes were abrupt. As researchers have discovered from ice cores drilled deep into ice sheets on Greenland, some changes over the past 100,000 years took place in a matter of only decades. About 11,500 years ago, for example, temperatures in Greenland shot up by 5–10°C (9–18°F) over a period of barely 40 years. But then, about 11,700 years ago, Earth's stormy climate tapered off, as we left the last ice age and entered a planetary state of natural harmony, the interglacial period we now call the Holocene. Humanity literally came in from the cold into a remarkably stable warm environment. Compared to what we faced during the Pleistocene 2.6 million years ago, humans now enjoyed relatively minor changes in climate. In fact, in both the Northern and Southern hemispheres, we quickly grew accustomed to an incredibly narrow range of climatic variation, with temperatures wobbling only about 1°C (1.8°F) up or down. The impact was immediate. Almost as soon as we entered the Holocene, groups of hunters and gatherers in at least four different parts of the world independently invented agriculture more or less simultaneously. Clearly, the warm, wet, and predictable environment agreed with us. Within 1,000–2,000 years of this new regime, we saw a transformation of our way of life in many places from semi-nomadic hunting and gathering to sedentary farming, which proved to be the key to the development of modern societies. Agriculture allowed specialization, technology development, rules and norms, and dramatic growth in our capacity to provide food for populations. It was at this point in history that we saw the rise of the earliest advanced human cultures: the Longshan Neolithic agrarian cultures of the Yellow River Valley in China; the ancient Egyptian irrigation societies along the Nile; the Mesopotamian irrigation societies along the Tigris and Euphrates rivers; the Greek and Roman empires; the Islamic civilizations in a large part of Africa and Central Asia; the agrarian societies of the Maya civilization in Central America. In their own ways, each of these agrarian cultures developed into advanced societies. Civilizations evolved through the Middle Ages, the evolution of the feudal merchant societies, eventually coupling with the rise of modern science during the late Renaissance, and ultimately the birth of nation states. We reached our first billion people by the year 1800, growing to three billion by the middle of the 20th century. The onset of the Holocene, in short, was the planetary equivalent of establishing the ultimate shopping mall for humanity. Suddenly we had a reliable source of goods and services delivered from a stable equilibrium of forests, savannahs, coral reefs, grasslands, fish, mammals, bacteria, air quality, ice cover, temperatures, freshwater availability, and productive soils. The point of this story is as simple as it is dramatic: We still depend on the Holocene for our prosperity and wellbeing. It is the Garden of Eden for our civilizations. In fact it's the only state of the planet we know that can support modern societies and a world population of more than seven billion people. That's why what we're doing right now ranks as the most disturbing event in the history of humankind: We're pushing our planet out of the Holocene into new and uncharted territory. WELCOME TO THE ANTHROPOCENE It didn't take long — only a half-century or so — for the rapid pace of industry and agriculture to threaten the world as we know it. Since the great acceleration of the human enterprise, kicking off in the mid-1950s, humanity's wide-ranging impacts — including climate change, chemical pollution, air pollution, land and water degradation, nutrient overload, and the massive loss of species and habitats — have put nearly all of Earth's major ecosystems under stress. In fact, we humans, Anthropos in ancient Greek, have become such a massive source of global change that we now constitute a geological-size force on the planet, one even more extensive in magnitude and pace than volcanic eruptions, plate tectonics, or erosion. With reckless abandon, we've introduced our own geological epoch, the "Anthropocene." The trend started in the mid-18th century with the industrial revolution, when we learned how to exploit fossil fuels as a new, cheap, and effective energy source. This broke many constraints that had previously hampered social and economic development. Now we could clear land in an unprecedented way, changing a landscape almost instantly. We developed an industrial process, only possible with fossil-fuel energy systems, to convert nitrogen from the atmosphere into fertilizers, breaking a fundamental constraint on food production. We improved sanitation systems, which, along with major medical advances, yielded great benefits for human health and improved urban environments. Our populations grew rapidly as a result of higher life expectancy and wellbeing. Manufacturing systems emerged that used fossil fuels to greatly increase production of goods. Unknown to us at the time, this rapid expansion of fossil-fuel usage was slowly raising CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. By the early 20th century, CO2 concentrations had reached the highest limits since the Holocene epoch began. Even back then, in other words, we were saying goodbye to the world as we know it. It wasn't until the mid-1950s, though, a period we now refer to as the "Great Acceleration," that the impacts of humankind's activities grew to dangerous levels. There were still relatively few people on the planet at that point — about three billion in 1955 — and we were still working under the mistaken assumption that environmental issues were separate from social and economic ones. But soon, by almost every measure, our growing populations and unsustainable habits piled on more and more environmental pressures. No matter which parameter you chose to look at — whether CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere from fossil fuels; nitrogen concentrations in the soil from agriculture and industry; methane concentrations in the air from livestock; ozone depletion over Antarctica; rising surface temperatures; floods and other extreme weather disasters; disappearing fish stocks; coastal disruption from fish farms; nitrogen pollution of coastal waters; loss of tropical rainforests; wild habitat converted to croplands; or increased rates of biodiversity loss — the trend was the same, with a sharply rising curve heading in the wrong direction (see Figure 1.1). Today, having reached unprecedented levels, these pressures have generated a vise of global impacts we call the "Quadruple Squeeze" (see Figure 1.4). The first squeeze on our wellbeing comes from the quest for affluence on an increasingly crowded planet. Of the nine billion people predicted to inhabit Earth by 2050, almost all of the population growth is expected to take place in what are today poor communities in Asia, Latin America, and Africa. At the same time, as the latest assessments by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) show, the world economy is projected to almost triple by 2050. Most of this growth is expected to occur among the world's poorer nations, whose economies are projected to expand five-fold. We'll soon live in a world with not 1.5 billion, but rather four, five, or even six billion middle-class citizens. For the first time in modern history, it is possible to imagine a world in which absolute poverty has been eradicated. This would be absolutely wonderful, and a grand marker of the right of all citizens to development and a decent life, but it entirely changes the prospects for human economic development. Many of the world's resources have already been used by industries and nations that have exploited them as quickly as possible to benefit the wealthiest 20 percent or so of the global population. Now the remaining 80 percent, who have claimed little ecological space so far, are rightly claiming their own share of Earth's resources. The problem is, this 80 percent aspires largely to the same unsustainable lifestyles as the wealthy 20 percent — the same social and economic paradigm that has caused our problems so far, born out of an inherited lack of environmental knowledge, responsibility, and concern. This is where world leaders have tended to put their heads in the sand. It's apparently too painful for them to admit that, just when we're finally getting a chance to go to scale with economic growth for a majority of the world's citizens, they're being forced to recognize that the old party is over. We're hitting the hard-wired biophysical ceiling of Earth's capacity to support continued unsustainable growth. What we need now is a deep rethink, a total mind-shift about the way that our economies should develop within the life-support systems on Earth. If we're serious about social and economic development for everyone, it must be founded on principles that are not only safe but also include a fair and just sharing of Earth's remaining ecological space among all citizens today and in the future. This is a massive, and so far heavily underestimated, collision between meeting peoples' needs and desire for affluence on the one hand, and securing a future within planetary boundaries on the other. The second squeeze on our prospects comes from climate change. Since 1960, global CO2 emissions have jumped from about 4 billion tons of carbon a year to about 9 billion tons. This represents a very rapid growth, with the biggest amounts coming during the past 15 years, which is paradoxical, of course, since that was the only period in human history when governments have agreed to reduce emissions. Meanwhile, concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere have risen from 280 parts per million (ppm) in pre-industrial levels to 400 ppm in 2014 — the widely recognized ceiling with regards to acceptable climate risk. This represents, for all greenhouse gases (GHG), a concentration of approximately 450 ppm (CO2 equivalent), the highest in at least 800,000 years. Because of the complexity of the climate system, it's impossible to predict the exact amount of warming this increase in greenhouse gas emissions will cause. But the common understanding among scientists is that we can expect an average global temperature bump of about 3°C (5.4°F) if CO2 concentrations rise as high as 560 ppm — that is, a doubling compared to pre-industrial concentrations. Unfortunately, the latest fifth scientific assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) shows that we are even exceeding this risk, and following a path toward 4°C (7.2°F) warming by 2100, based on the momentum of global increases in greenhouse gas emissions and the lack of progress by world leaders in climate negotiations. This path can't be called anything but disastrous for humanity. The world has already started to feel the consequences of rising temperatures. In fact, the signs are all around us: rapid loss of summer sea ice in the Arctic Ocean; retreat of mountain glaciers around the world; accelerated melting of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets; an increased rate of sea level rise; and an increase in bleaching and mortality in coral reefs. During the past few years, we've also seen an exceptional number of extreme weather events, many of which were likely strengthened by climate change. After 12 years of drought, Australia was struck in 2010 by the largest flood in 50 years. Dams overflowed and agricultural yields collapsed in a disaster that caused a significant reduction in Australian gross domestic product (GDP) and influenced world market prices for food. Unprecedented floods swamped Pakistan, India, and Afghanistan, while droughts caused social disruptions in parts of West and East Africa. In the USA, a record 14 weather and climate disasters caused damage estimated at 1 billion USD or more, from extreme heat waves, droughts, and floods to tornadoes, hurricanes, wildfires, and winter storms. Clearly, changes in rainfall patterns could represent a serious threat if region after region suffers shifts in the frequency, magnitude, and duration of droughts, wildfires, storms, floods, and disease outbreaks, that, in turn, affect food production, trade, economic growth, and, ultimately, social stability. The third major squeeze on global progress comes from the extraordinary pace with which we are undermining Earth's biosphere — the marine, freshwater, and terrestrial ecosystems upon which all human societies depend. Never before have we eroded ecosystem functions and services as rapidly as we have during the past 50 years. Fish stocks have disappeared. Fish farms have disrupted coastal ecosystems. Coastal waters have been polluted with nitrogen and phosphorus. Tropical rainforests have been lost. Wild habitats have been converted to croplands, and we've seen dramatic reductions in biodiversity. In plain language, we've driven Earth to its weakest state since the advent of modern human societies, unwittingly limiting our options for the future. The fourth "squeeze" on humanity's "room for maneuvering" comes from the recent recognition that sudden, unexpected change appears to be the rule rather than the exception in natural ecosystems. Although we've built our entire relationship with nature — our governance systems, our economic paradigm, and our regime for resource use — on the assumption that the environment functions like a well-stocked mall, with goods and services gradually and linearly becoming scarce as we exploit them, we now know that's not the case. If we overuse something in nature, it doesn't automatically restore itself like consumer products on store shelves appear to do. That's not how nature works. Read an Excerpt
Big World Small Planet
Abundance Within Planetary Boundaries
By Johan Rockström, Mattias Klum, Peter Miller, Jerker Lokrantz Yale UNIVERSITY PRESS
Copyright © 2015 Bokförlaget Max Ström
All rights reserved.
ISBN: 978-0-300-21836-7
CHAPTER 1
(Continues...)
Excerpted from Big World Small Planet by Johan Rockström, Mattias Klum, Peter Miller, Jerker Lokrantz. Copyright © 2015 Bokförlaget Max Ström. Excerpted by permission of Yale UNIVERSITY PRESS.
All rights reserved. No part of this excerpt may be reproduced or reprinted without permission in writing from the publisher.
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Table of Contents
Contents
PREFACE, 7,
OUR TEN KEY MESSAGES, 14,
SECTION 1 THE GRAND CHALLENGE, 28,
1. OUR NEW PREDICAMENT, 31,
2. PLANETARY BOUNDARIES, 59,
3. BIG WHAMMIES, 81,
4. PEAK EVERYTHING, 101,
SECTION 2 THE GREAT MIND-SHIFT, 114,
5. NO BUSINESS ON A DEAD PLANET, 117,
6. UNLEASHING INNOVATION, 131,
SECTION 3 SUSTAINABLE SOLUTIONS, 144,
7. RETHINKING STEWARDSHIP, 147,
8. A DUAL-TRACK STRATEGY, 163,
9. SOLUTIONS FROM NATURE, 181,
AFTERWORD, 194,
FURTHER INFORMATION ON PHOTOGRAPHS, 198,
KEY SOURCES AND RECOMMENDED READING, 200,
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS, 207,
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