The Economics of the Stock Market

The current consensus economic model, the neoclassical synthesis, depends on aprioristic assumptions that are shown to be invalid when tested against the data and fails to include finance. Economic policy based on this consensus has led to the financial crisis of 2008, the 'Great Recession' that followed, and the slow subsequent rate of growth. In The Economics of the Stock Market, Andrew Smithers proposes a model that is robust when tested, and by including the impact of the stock market on the economy, overcomes both these defects. The faults of the current consensus model are shown to result typically from an unscientific methodology in which assumptions are held to be valid despite their incompatibility with data evidence. Smithers demonstrates examples of these faults: the Miller/Modigliani Theorem (the assumption that leverage does not affect the value of produced capital assets); the assumption that short-term and long-term interest rates, and the cost of equity capital, are co-determined; and the assumption that the decisions of corporate managements aim to maximise the present value of corporate assets ('profit maximisation') rather than the value determined by the stock market. The Economics of the Stock Market proposes a model that includes and explains the stationarity of real returns on equity, based on the interaction of the differing utility preferences of the managers of companies and the owners of financial capital. These claims are highly controversial, and Smithers proposes that the relative merits of the neoclassical synthesis and this proposed alternative can only be properly considered through public debate.

ISBN-13: 9780192847096

Media Type: Hardcover

Publisher: Oxford University Press

Publication Date: 06-22-2022

Pages: 224

Product Dimensions: 9.00(w) x 6.50(h) x 1.20(d)

Andrew Smithers, Founder, Smithers & Co. Andrew Smithers is founder and director of economic consultancy Smithers & Co. He is the author of The Road to Recovery: How and Why Economic Policy Must Change (Wiley, 2013), and Productivity and the Bonus Culture (OUP, 2018).

Table of Contents

Foreword by Andy Haldane
Chapter 1 Introduction
Chapter 2 Surprising Features of the Model
Chapter 3 The Model in Summary
Chapter 4 Management Behaviour, Investment, Debt, and Pay-out Ratios
Chapter 5 Corporate Leverage and Household Portfolio Preference
Chapter 6 The Growth of Corporate Equity
Chapter 7 The Yield Curve
Chapter 8 The Risk-Free Short-term Rate of Interest
Chapter 9 Equity, Bond, and Cash Relative Returns
Chapter 10 Stock Market Returns Do Not Follow a Random Walk
Chapter 11 The Risks of Equities at Different Time Horizons
Chapter 12 The Time Horizon at Which Investors Will Prefer Equities to Bonds
Chapter 13 Changes in Aggregate Risk Aversion
Chapter 14 Monetary Policy, Leverage, and Portfolio Preferences
Chapter 15 Valuing the US Stock Market
Chapter 16 The Real Return on Equity Capital Worldwide
Chapter 17 Money and Time Weighted Returns
Chapter 18 The Behaviour of The Firm
Chapter 19 Corporate Investment and the Miller-Modigliani Theorem
Chapter 20 Land, Inventories, and Trade Credit
Chapter 21 How the Market Returns to Fair Value
Chapter 22 Fluctuations in the Hurdle Rate
Chapter 23 Tangibles and Intangibles
Chapter 24 Other Problems from Labelling IP Expenditure as Investment
Chapter 25 Inflation, Leverage, Growth, and Financial Stability.
Chapter 26 Tax
Chapter 27 Portfolio Preference and Retirement Savings
Chapter 28 Life Cycle Savings Hypothesis (LCSH)
Chapter 29 Depreciation, Capital Consumption, and Maintenance
Chapter 30 Comparison with Other Approaches
Chapter 31 The Efficient Market Hypothesis
Chapter 32 Summary
Chapter 33 Comments in Conclusion

Appendices

Appendix 1. The Duration of Bonds and Equities
Appendix 2. The Valuation of Unquoted Companies in The Financial Accounts of the United States - Z1
Appendix 3. Measurement of the Net Capital Stock and Depreciation in the US
Appendix 4. Data Sources, Use, and Methods of Calculation Show More