The Primacy of Doubt: From Quantum Physics to Climate Change, How the Science of Uncertainty Can Help Us Understand Our Chaotic World

"Quite possibly the best popular science book I've ever read" (Popular Science) shows how the tools that enabled us to overcome the uncertainty of the weather will enable us to find new answers to modern science's most pressing questions

Why does your weather app say "There's a 10% chance of rain" instead of "It will be sunny tomorrow"? In large part this is due to the insight of Tim Palmer, who made uncertainty essential to the study of weather and climate. Now he wants to apply it to how we study everything else.

In The Primacy of Doubt, Palmer argues that embracing the mathematics of uncertainty is vital to understanding ourselves and the universe around us. Whether we want to predict climate change or market crashes, understand how the brain is able to outpace supercomputers, or find a theory that links quantum and cosmological physics, Palmer shows how his vision of mathematical uncertainty provides new insights into some of the deepest problems in science. The result is a revolution--one that shows that power begins by embracing what we don't know.

ISBN-13: 9781541619715

Media Type: Hardcover

Publisher: Basic Books

Publication Date: 10-18-2022

Pages: 320

Product Dimensions: 6.00(w) x 9.30(h) x 1.40(d)

Tim Palmer, FRS, CBE is a Royal Society Research Professor in the department of physics at the University of Oxford. He pioneered the development of operational ensemble weather and climate forecasting, and in 2007, he was formally recognized as having contributed to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Nobel Peace Prize. Palmer is a Commander of the British Empire, a fellow of the Royal Society and the National Academy of Sciences, and a recipient of the Institute of Physics’ Dirac Gold Medal. He lives near Oxford, UK.

Table of Contents

Author's Note xi

Acknowledgements xvii

Introduction 1

Part I The Science of Uncertainty 9

1 Chaos, Chaos Everywhere 11

2 The Geometry of Chaos 25

3 Noisy, Million-Dollar Butterflies 47

4 Quantum Uncertainty: Reality Lost? 65

Part II Predicting Our Chaotic World 83

5 The Two Roads to Monte Carlo 85

6 Climate Change: Catastrophe or Just Lukewarm? 109

7 Pandemics 133

8 Financial Crashes 149

9 Deadly Conflict and the Digital Ensemble of Spaceship Earth 167

10 Decisions! Decisions! 181

Part III Understanding the Chaotic Universe and Our Place in It 199

11 Quantum Uncertainty: Reality Regained? 201

12 Our Noisy Brains 221

13 Free Will, Consciousness and God 237

Bibliography 251

Notes 259

Index 279