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The Technology Trap: Capital, Labor, and Power in the Age of Automation

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"Made me look at the industrial revolution, invention, sleeping beauties, contexts and the forces that shape our societies differently."—David Byrne, New York Times Book Review

How the history of technological revolutions can help us better understand economic and political polarization in the age of automation

The Technology Trap is a sweeping account of the history of technological progress and how it has radically shifted the distribution of economic and political power among society’s members. As Carl Benedikt Frey shows, the Industrial Revolution created unprecedented wealth and prosperity over the long run, but the immediate consequences of mechanization were devastating. Middle-income jobs withered, wages stagnated, the labor share of income fell, profits surged, and economic inequality skyrocketed. These trends broadly mirror those in our current age of automation. But, just as the Industrial Revolution eventually brought about extraordinary benefits for society, artificial intelligence systems have the potential to do the same. The Technology Trap demonstrates that in the midst of another technological revolution, the lessons of the past can help us to more effectively face the present.

ISBN-13: 9780691210797

Media Type: Paperback

Publisher: Princeton University Press

Publication Date: 09-22-2020

Pages: 488

Product Dimensions: 5.20(w) x 7.90(h) x 1.40(d)

Carl Benedikt Frey is the Oxford Martin Citi Fellow and codirector of the Oxford Martin Programme on Technology and Employment at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford. Twitter @carlbfrey

What People are Saying About This

From the Publisher

"Frey’s story is well argued and—at times—deeply alarming."—John Thornhill, Financial Times

"An excellent analysis of past industrial revolutions, the technologies that emerged within them, and the way societies adapted to those changes."—Adi Gaskell, Forbes

"The Technology Trap may well ensnare doom-seekers’ attention with its ominous-sounding title. But it should ultimately hearten anyone who reads it."The Economist

"A provocative, original long view on current concerns."—Andrew Hill, Financial Times

"Bracing . . . Carl Frey extrapolates from the history of the industrial revolution to offer a vision of the future in which Amazon Go, AI assistants and autonomous vehicles are 'worker replacement' technologies."—Greg Williams, Wired

"An important book. . . . Frey is erudite and thoughtful."—Joel Mokyr, Journal of Economic History

Table of Contents

Preface ix

Introduction 1

Part I The Great Stagnation 29

1 A Brief History of Preindustrial Progress 33

2 Preindustrial Prosperity 60

3 Why Mechanization Failed 72

Part II Theorem Divergence 93

4 The Factory Arrives 97

5 The Industrial Revolution and Its Discontents 112

Part III The Great Leveling 141

6 From Mass Production to Mass Flourishing 147

7 The Return of the Machinery Question 174

8 The Triumph of the Middle Class 189

Part IV The Great Reversal 223

9 The Descent of the Middle Class 227

10 Forging Ahead, Drifting Apart 249

11 The Politics of Polarization 264

12 Artificial Intelligence 301

13 The Road to Riches 342

Acknowledgments 367

Appendix 369

Notes 373

Bibliography 425

Index 453