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Minding the Weather: How Expert Forecasters Think

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A detailed study of research on the psychology of expertise in weather forecasting, drawing on findings in cognitive science, meteorology, and computer science.

This book argues that the human cognition system is the least understood, yet probably most important, component of forecasting accuracy. Minding the Weather investigates how people acquire massive and highly organized knowledge and develop the reasoning skills and strategies that enable them to achieve the highest levels of performance.

The authors consider such topics as the forecasting workplace; atmospheric scientists' descriptions of their reasoning strategies; the nature of expertise; forecaster knowledge, perceptual skills, and reasoning; and expert systems designed to imitate forecaster reasoning. Drawing on research in cognitive science, meteorology, and computer science, the authors argue that forecasting involves an interdependence of humans and technologies. Human expertise will always be necessary.

ISBN-13: 9780262548816

Media Type: Paperback

Publisher: MIT Press

Publication Date: 08-15-2023

Pages: 488

Product Dimensions: 7.00(w) x 9.00(h) x (d)

Robert R. Hoffman is Senior Research Scientist at the Institute for Human and Machine Cognition in Pensacola, Florida. Daphne S. LaDue is a Research Scientist at the University of Oklahoma's Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms and Director of the Research Experiences for Undergraduates Program at the National Weather Center in Norman, Oklahoma. H. Michael Mogil is currently a consulting meteorologist focusing on meteorological education in the primary and secondary school systems. Paul J. Roebber is Distinguished Professor of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee. J. Gregory Trafton is Cognitive Scientist at the Naval Research Laboratory in Washington, D.C.

What People are Saying About This

Gary Klein

This is a landmark book. An in-depth account of expertise at its highest level. A fascinating and highly readable explanation of how experts take advantage of technology. Besides, who can resist an inside look at the work of weather forecasters? This book has been years in the making, years in the polishing, and is destined to take its place among the classics of scientific scholarship.

John T. Snow

Minding the Weather is a remarkable book! It discusses in great detail how individuals become weather forecasters, and beyond that, expert weather forecasters. It shows that weather forecasting is a continuous, lifelong learning process, which, if one learns the lessons being taught by the atmosphere, can lead to a high level of professional expertise. This book is for anyone responsible for educating, training, and employing weather forecasters.

David M. Schultz

How are weather forecasters able to reveal the future? How does one become an expert? What does it mean to be an expert? These are just some of the questions that the authors pose in this excellent, all-encompassing book about weather forecasting and the minds of those who make the forecasts. Minding the Weather opens the brains of forecasters, peeks inside, and reveals how they think, how they make forecasts, and how they become experts.

Endorsement

How are weather forecasters able to reveal the future? How does one become an expert? What does it mean to be an expert? These are just some of the questions that the authors pose in this excellent, all-encompassing book about weather forecasting and the minds of those who make the forecasts. Minding the Weather opens the brains of forecasters, peeks inside, and reveals how they think, how they make forecasts, and how they become experts.

David M. Schultz, Professor of Synoptic Meteorology, University of Manchester; author of Eloquent Science: A Practical Guide to Becoming a Better Writer, Speaker and Atmospheric Scientist

From the Publisher

This is a landmark book. An in-depth account of expertise at its highest level. A fascinating and highly readable explanation of how experts take advantage of technology. Besides, who can resist an inside look at the work of weather forecasters? This book has been years in the making, years in the polishing, and is destined to take its place among the classics of scientific scholarship.

Gary Klein, author of Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions

Minding the Weather is a remarkable book! It discusses in great detail how individuals become weather forecasters, and beyond that, expert weather forecasters. It shows that weather forecasting is a continuous, lifelong learning process, which, if one learns the lessons being taught by the atmosphere, can lead to a high level of professional expertise. This book is for anyone responsible for educating, training, and employing weather forecasters.

John T. Snow, Regents' Professor Emeritus of Meteorology, Dean Emeritus, College of Atmospheric and Geographic Sciences, University of Oklahoma

How are weather forecasters able to reveal the future? How does one become an expert? What does it mean to be an expert? These are just some of the questions that the authors pose in this excellent, all-encompassing book about weather forecasting and the minds of those who make the forecasts. Minding the Weather opens the brains of forecasters, peeks inside, and reveals how they think, how they make forecasts, and how they become experts.

David M. Schultz, Professor of Synoptic Meteorology, University of Manchester; author of Eloquent Science: A Practical Guide to Becoming a Better Writer, Speaker and Atmospheric Scientist

Table of Contents

About the Authors ix
Preface xi
Acknowledgments xiii
1 Introduction 1
2 What Is the Forecasting Workspace Like? 27
3 How Do People Come to Be Forecasters? 49
4 How Do Forecasters Describe How They Reason? 81
5 How Well Do Forecasters (and Forecasts) Perform? 101
6 What Characterizes Expertise? 129
7 How Do Forecasters Get to Be Expert Forecasters? 151
8 What Does Research on Forecaster Knowledge Tell Us? 191
9 What Does Research on Forecaster Perception Tell Us? 211
10 What Does Research on Forecaster Reasoning Tell Us? 243
11 Can a Machine Imitate the Human? 287
12 Can a Machine Replace the Human? 305
13 Forecaster-Computer Interdependence 337
14 Conclusions and Prospects 349
Appendix A: List of Acronyms 361
Appendix B: Extended Narratives of Two Cases of Forecasting Severe Weather 365
Appendix C: Example Synoptic Analyses of GOES Visible Images 389
Appendix D: A Case Study in Human-Machine Interdependence 395
Appendix E: References on Visualization Design and Display Technology 399
References 409
Index 463